Understanding the hype cycle

By David Jenkin 

Gartner’s Hype Cycle 

It was the American IT research and advisory firm Gartner that coined the phrase and advanced the notion of the hype cycle as a tool for risk management, specifically with regards to investments in new technologies. It can be defined as a graphical presentation of the maturation, adoption and application of specific new technologies. 

As Gartner’s website explains; “Gartner Hype Cycle methodology gives you a view of how a technology or application will evolve over time, providing a sound source of insight to manage its deployment within the context of your specific business goals.” 

Although not technically a cycle, Gartner’s pattern is consistent. The first step in the process is the “technology trigger”, a breakthrough that leads to early interest and speculation but no usable products yet. This grows into the “peak of inflated expectations”, when reports of the technology’s success with first generation products circulate and anticipation reaches its highest point. What follows is a “trough of disillusionment”, when products fall short of inflated expectations, problems in first generation products become evident, and media interest subsides as the novelty fades. The “slope of enlightenment” restores some confidence as the technology matures – second and third generation products improve on earlier versions and users acquire a better understanding of the technology’s abilities and applications. This leads to the “plateau of productivity” which is when mainstream adoption takes off. 

Gartner release an annual report that maps where on the cycle key emerging technologies currently sit. In 2015, they placed people-literate technology and virtual personal assistants at the trigger point, while micro data centres and autonomous vehicles climbed the peak, and augmented reality and cryptocurrency exchange sat in the trough. Rising to the plateau as it approached the mainstream market was virtual reality. 

Testing the pattern 

Different technologies move through the cycle at different rates and a range of factors could affect the shape of the pattern, but to put the Hype Cycle’s overall consistency to the test, Media Update approached Focal Points Analysis* to do a case study. 

By tracking the volume of media coverage on two particular wearable tech products, the Samsung Galaxy Gear and the Apple iWatch, over a twenty week period (ten weeks prior to the launch and ten weeks after), it was possible to pinpoint their respective peaks of inflated expectations (or hype). For both, this occurred just prior to the products’ release dates – late September 2013 for the Galaxy Gear, and late April 2015 for the iWatch. By the time the products were actually released the graphs were already dipping into a trough, but after levelling off in the ten weeks that followed, both saw a recovery. The iWatch, in particular, saw a large resurgence in media coverage, although it received markedly less overall media interest than the Galaxy Gear which made it to the market much earlier. 

Given that the time frame analysed was much shorter than the full lifespan of the products’ hype cycles, the results observed represent a miniature cycle. In terms of the larger ‘lifetime’ cycle, in 2015 Gartner placed wearables at a point past their peak and beginning to enter the trough of disillusionment. Wearables are expected to reach the plateau of productivity in five to ten years. 

The PR perspective 

Kirsten Mercer of ProActive knows her way around activations and, by extension, hype. She says that the hype cycle trend is something she does find to be observable and consistent, especially with something like wearables. 

“With this type of product, marketers need to create hype in order to create an instant need. Hype – be it through activations, viral campaigns, traditional advertising and/or word of mouth – needs to be created in order to break through the clutter and make the product highly desirable,” she says. 

Every brand needs to create the kind of hype that fits with what they wish to achieve, she explains, and tech products need to make a big impact on the market since the life cycle of brands is minimal compared to other fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) which need to create constant hype to drive regular purchasing. 

“FMCG marketing is a different animal all-together. The strategy for marketing FMCG brands needs to be constant and consistent.” She adds that different brands require different strategies, and the strategy has to consider the overarching brand objectives. “For example, does the brand want instant sales or regular purchases through a longer period? This is where a cohesive, multi-touch-point, long-term strategy comes into play.” 

Mercer points out that every brand, especially new and re-launched brands, need to create a hype in order to convert or gain interest to push trial, and for that understanding the Gartner Hype Cycle could prove useful. However, she concludes that in a cluttered market the most important thing for a campaign to focus on is target audience and the product’s unique selling points, differentiating from competitors, in order to ultimately market the product correctly and effectively.  

What is your experience of the hype cycle? Tell us in the comments below.